Preface ........................................................ XV
Preliminary Remarks and Summary .............................. XVII
The Significance of the Rapid Deployment of Solar Thermal
Power Plants for Energy Policy ............................... XVII
Acknowledgments ............................................... XXV
List of Tables .............................................. XXVII
1 Introduction ................................................. 7
1.1 Historical Background ................................... 1
1.2 Formulating the Problem ................................. 4
2 The Salient Facts ............................................ 7
2.1 Solar Tower Power Plants as the Basis for Cost
Estimates: Cost Analyses ................................ 7
2.2 The Combined System of Solar and Backup Power Plants
("Solar Power System") .................................. 9
2.2.1 Solar Base-Load Plants .......................... 10
2.3 How Much Does Solar Power Cost? ........................ 11
2.3.1 Introductory Remarks ............................ 11
2.3.2 Investments and Power Costs ..................... 12
2.3.3 Are the Additional Costs Compared to Nuclear
Plants Affordable? .............................. 18
2.3.3.1 Burden on the Economy Due to Higher
Power Costs (The Cost Difference
Solar Energy- Nuclear Energy) .......... 19
2.3.4 Possibly Lower Cost Differences, Potential for
Further Development ............................. 21
2.3.5 "Hidden" Costs of Conventional Power Plants ..... 24
2.3.5.1 Nuclear Power Plants ................... 25
2.3.5.2 Coal-Fired Power Plants ................ 26
2.3.5.3 Fossil-Fuel Backup Power Plants for
the Solar Power System ................. 28
2.4 Possible Time Scales for the Operational Readiness of
Solar Thermal Power Plants and the Comprehensive
Replacement of Current Power Plants .................... 29
2.4.1 Special Aspects of Solar Power-Plant
Development ..................................... 29
2.4.2 The Simplest Technology-Consequences for
Development and Construction on a Large Scale ... 32
2.4.3 The Basic Development Tasks for Heliostats ...... 43
2.4.3.1 Stability .............................. 43
2.4.3.2 Cost Predictions ....................... 44
2.4.4 The Most Important Single Point: A Cost Study
for the Standard Heliostat ...................... 47
2.4.5 The Interdisciplinary Character of Solar-Plant
Development ..................................... 48
2.4.6 Consequences for the Organization of Research ... 49
2.4.7 Industrial Initiatives and Start-up Funding ..... 49
3 Solar Technologies-An Overview .............................. 51
3.1 Dish Plants ............................................ 52
3.2 Tower Power Plants ..................................... 55
3.3 Parabolic Troughs ...................................... 61
3.4 Linear Fresnel Plants .................................. 64
3.5 Updraft (Chimney) and Downdraft Power Plants ........... 67
4 Some Additional Economic Factors ............................ 71
4.1 Detailed Treatment of the Costs of the Solar Power
System-Comparison with Competing Types of Power
Plants-Discussion ...................................... 71
4.1.1 Solar Power Systems with Coal-Fired Backup
Power Plants (Instead of Natural Gas Plants) .... 71
4.1.2 Overview of Costs ............................... 74
4.1.3 Coal-Fired Base-Load Power Plants with C02
Sequestration ................................... 82
4.1.4 Coal-Fired Power Plants without C02
Sequestration ................................... 84
4.1.5 Nuclear Power Plants ............................ 85
4.1.6 Weighing Cost Differences ....................... 89
4.1.7 Separate Considerations of Solar and Backup
Power Supplies .................................. 91
4.1.8 Solar Power at the Plant Site ................... 92
4.1.9 Hydrogen Production ............................. 93
4.2 Comparison with the Study of Sargent and Lundy ......... 94
4.2.1 Costs from Various Studies ...................... 98
4.2.1.1 Investment Costs ....................... 98
4.2.1.2 Operating and Maintenance Costs ........ 99
4.2.2 Response of the NRC to the S & L Study ......... 203
4.2.2.1 The Research-Political Context of
the S & L Study and the Criticism of
the NRC ............................... 106
4.2.2.2 Conclusions Based on the Current
Preliminary State of Knowledge ........ 108
4.2.2.3 Conclusions Regarding the NRC
Report ................................ 110
4.3 Some Special Points Concerning Cost Estimates ......... 110
4.3.1 The Effect of Mass Production on the Indirect
Costs .......................................... 111
4.3.2 Solar Multiple / "24-h Design Insolation" ...... 112
4.3.2.1 Recalculation for a "Base-Load"
Power Plant ........................... 113
4.3.3 Land Prices in Spain ........................... 114
4.3.4 Political Costs-North African Solar Energy as
a "Relative" Alternative for Europe ............ 115
4.3.4.1 European Alternatives in
Negotiations with North African
Countries for Potential Power Plant
Sites ................................. 115
4.3.5 Specific Land-Area Requirements ................ 117
4.3.6 Horizontal Salt Circuits ....................... 120
4.3.6.1 Costs ................................. 120
4.3.7 Dry Cooling .................................... 121
4.3.7.1 Literature References to Dry Cooling
for Solar Power Plants ................ 123
4.3.7.2 Literature References to Dry Cooling
for Conventional Power Plants ......... 225
4.3.8 Technical Reliability .......................... 126
4.3.9 Power Transmission via Overhead Power Lines .... 127
4.4 Calculating the Power Costs ........................... 129
4.4.1 Capital Costs, Nominal or Real Interest,
Operating Lifetimes ............................ 130
4.4.1.1 Note on the Technical Operating
Lifetime .............................. 132
4.4.2 Interest Rates ................................. 133
4.4.3 Equity Capital and Outside Capital ............. 134
4.4.3.1 Conclusions ........................... 138
5 The Potential of Solar Thermal Power Plants for the
Energy Supply: Capacity Factor, Availability of Solar
Energy, and Land Availability .............................. 747
5.1 Overview .............................................. 141
5.2 Spain: Capacity Utilization and Insolation ............ 147
5.3 The USA ............................................... 152
5.4 Solar Tower Plants-Permissible Slope of the Terrain ... 155
5.5 Spain: Availability of Sites .......................... 157
5.6 Morocco/Sahara ........................................ 160
5.7 China, India, and Potential Sites in Tibet-
Inaccuracy of the Available Maps ...................... 164
5.7.1 Conclusions .................................... 169
5.8 Insufficient Accuracy of the Insolation Data;
Measurement Program ................................... 171
6 Heliostats ................................................. 181
6.1 Estimating the Heliostat Costs ........................ 181
6.1.1 Examples ....................................... 182
6.1.2 Preliminary Conclusions ........................ 184
6.2 Necessary Measures for the Precise Determination of
Costs in Mass Production .............................. 185
6.3 Stretched-Membrane Heliostats ......................... 186
6.3.1 Technology ..................................... 186
6.3.2 Development Aspects ............................ 191
6.4 Installations for Operational Testing of the
Heliostats ............................................ 194
6.5 Comparison of the Cost Assumptions with Those of
Other Studies ......................................... 196
6.5.1 Heliostat Costs in the S & L Study ............. 196
6.5.2 The Sandia Heliostat Study ..................... 197
7 Receivers .................................................. 209
7.1 SOLAR TWO: Development Requirements for the
"Advanced Receiver" ................................... 209
7.1.1 Costs and Basic Technology ..................... 209
7.1.1.1 Costs ................................. 209
7.1.1.2 Design and Function ................... 210
7.1.1.3 Developmental Requirements ............ 211
7.1.2 System Development: Molten-Salt Circuits and
Receivers ...................................... 214
7.1.2.1 Molten-Salt Circuits .................. 215
7.1.2.2 The Development of Hybrid Boilers ..... 227
7.1.2.3 A Test Installation for Receiver
Development ........................... 217
7.2 Air Receivers ......................................... 218
7.2.1 Technology ..................................... 218
7.2.2 Development .................................... 225
7.2.2.1 Airflow Piping ........................ 225
7.2.2.2 Heat Storage Systems .................. 226
7.2.2.3 Air-Recovery System ................... 226
7.2.2.4 Test Installation for Receiver
Development ........................... 227
8 Parabolic-Trough Power Plants .............................. 229
8.1 Basic Facts ........................................... 229
8.2 Costs ................................................. 232
8.2.1 Preliminary Remarks ............................ 232
8.2.2 Investment Costs ............................... 234
8.2.3 Operating and Maintenance Costs ................ 237
8.2.4 Power Costs .................................... 238
8.3 Development Program and Cost Estimates for Mass
Production ............................................ 240
8.3.1 Test Plants .................................... 242
8.4 Heat-Storage Systems for Parabolic-Trough Power
Plants ................................................ 241
8.4.1 Preliminary Remarks ............................ 242
8.4.2 Molten-Salt Heat-Storage System ................ 243
8.4.3 Heat-Storage Systems Based on Concrete ......... 246
8.4.4 Test Facilities for Solid and Thermocline
Heat-Storage Systems ........................... 248
9 Solar Updraft Power Plants ................................. 257
9.1 Introductory Remarks .................................. 251
9.2 The Principle ......................................... 252
9.3 Investment and Power Costs ............................ 256
9.4 Development Program ................................... 259
9.4.1 The Development of Components .................. 259
9.4.1.1 The Chimney ........................... 260
9.4.1.2 Heat Storage .......................... 261
9.4.2 A Demonstration Plant .......................... 262
9.4.3 Detailed Cost Estimates ........................ 263
9.4.4 Development Costs .............................. 264
10 Fossil-Fuel Power Plants ................................... 265
10.1 Natural Gas Plants .................................... 266
10.1.1 Investment Costs ............................... 266
10.1.2 Gas Costs ...................................... 267
10.1.3 Operating and Maintenance Costs ................ 268
10.2 Conventional Coal-Fired Plants ........................ 269
10.2.1 Investment Costs ............................... 269
10.2.2 The Price of Coal .............................. 270
10.2.3 Plant Efficiencies/Contribution of Coal Price
to Power Costs ................................. 272
10.2.4 Operating and Maintenance Costs ................ 275
10.3 Coal-Fired Plants with CO2 Sequestration .............. 275
10.3.1 Cost Estimates According to EIA AEO 2007
(Without Storage Costs): The Cost of Power ..... 276
10.3.2 The Cost of Storing the Separated C02
(Including CO2 Transport) ...................... 277
10.3.2.1 Storage on Land ....................... 277
10.3.2.2 The Cost of CO2 Storage at Sea ........ 277
11 Other Technologies for Backup Power Generation and
Alternatives for Future Energy Supplies .................... 281
11.1 Generating Backup Power Without Natural Gas and
Coal-Fired Power Plants .......................... 281
11.1.1 Overview ................................ 281
11.1.2 Gas from Coal Gasification for Backup
Power Plants ............................ 283
11.1.3 Smaller Coal-Fired Installations in
the Solar Plants-Solar-Coal Hybrid
Power Plants ............................ 284
11.1.4 The Combination of Solar Thermal and
Offshore Wind Plants - Offshore Wind
Power as a Conditional Alternative to
Solar Energy for Europe ................. 290
11.2 Coal Gasification as a Gas Source for Backup Power
Plants and as an Important Component of the Future
Energy Supply ......................................... 292
11.2.1 Gasification versus Direct Power Generation
Using Coal - Solar Energy for Coal
Replacement in Power Generation and for
Hydrogen Production ............................ 292
11.2.2 The Cost of Coal Gasification (for H2
Production) .................................... 293
11.2.2.1 Conventional and Advanced
Gasification .......................... 297
11.2.2.2 Operation and Maintenance (O & M)
Costs ................................. 298
11.2.3 The Assumed Cost of CO2 Storage ................ 298
11.2.4 Syngas as a Particularly Inexpensive
Substitute ..................................... 300
11.2.5 Backup Power Plants as Consumers of Gas-Gas
Transport and Storage Costs .................... 302
11.2.6 Backup Power Plants: Switching to Other Fuels
When Gas is in Great Demand-Development of
Combustion Chambers ............................ 304
11.2.7 Development of "Advanced Technology" with
a View to a General Gas Supply and IGCC Power
Plants - Barriers to Development ............... 305
11.2.7.1 Gas Purification and Separation ....... 305
11.2.7.2 Advanced Technology for IGCC Power
Plants ................................ 307
11.2.7.3 Development of Gasification
Facilities-The Higher Efficiency of
the Shell Process ..................... 307
11.2.8 Preconditions for the Substitution of Natural
Gas by H2 or Syngas: Modification of the End-
User Appliances and the Transport Networks ..... 310
11.2.9 The Possible Extent of Coal Gasification
Using Substitutable Power-Plant Coal ........... 312
11.2.9.1 Gas Quantities Made Available by
the Substitution of Current Coal-
Fired and Gas Power Plants ............ 315
11.2.9.2 Limitations of the Natural-Gas
Reserves in the USA ................... 318
11.3 Coal as the Only Major Alternative to Oil and Gas?-
The Scope of the Coal Resources for Power Generation
and Gasification on a Large Scale-the Potential for
Sequestration of CO2 .................................. 318
11.3.1 Coal Reserves .................................. 319
11.3.2 The Future Consumption of Coal-Depletion Time
of Resources ................................... 324
11.3.3 The Potentially Limited Capacity for
Economical Storage of CO2 ...................... 329
11.4 Solar Hydrogen ........................................ 332
11.4.1 Hydrogen Production from Electrolysis .......... 332
11.4.2 Transporting Hydrogen .......................... 341
11.4.3 Sun Methanol for Around 90 $/Barrel Oil
Equivalent-An Effective Brake on the Oil
Price. The USA as a Future Sun-Coal-Fuel
World Power. "OPIC" as the Answer to OPEC ...... 344
11.4.3.1 Costs ................................. 346
11.4.3.2 Coal Consumption ...................... 352
11.4.3.3 A Price Brake on Petroleum -
The Potential of Sun Methanol in the
USA .................................. 355
11.4.3.4 Liquid-Fuel Production from Coal
Alone?-Sun Methanol to Conserve US
Coal Reserves ......................... 357
11.4.3.5 Methanol Production using Nuclear
Hydrogen .............................. 358
11.4.3.6 OPIC .................................. 359
11.4.3.7 The CO2 Balance ....................... 360
11.4.4 Hydrogen and Coal for Liquid Energy Carriers
in a Future Solar-Hydrogen Energy System ....... 362
12 The Large-Scale Use of Nuclear Energy ...................... 367
12.1 The Costs of Nuclear Power-Results .................... 367
12.2 Investment Costs under Mass Production ................ 367
12.2.1 Estimates According to the "Chicago Study" ..... 367
12.2.1.1 Conclusions from Table 12.1 ........... 376
12.2.2 A Problem: The Lack of Competition among
System Manufacturers-The Contrast to Solar
Energy ......................................... 381
12.3 Operation and Maintenance Costs; Fuel Costs ........... 383
12.3.1 Operation and Maintenance (O & M) Costs ........ 383
12.3.2 Enrichment and Other Fuel Costs, Not
Including the Cost of Natural Uranium .......... 384
12.4 Consumption and Cost of Natural Uranium per kWhel ..... 386
12.5 The Problems Associated with Nuclear Energy ........... 387
12.5.1 Consequences of the Development of Centrifuge
Technology ..................................... 387
12.5.2 General Problems of Nuclear Power Generation ... 387
12.6 Uranium Reserves ...................................... 390
12.6.1 Lifetime of the Reserves in the Case of
a Massive Increase in Nuclear Power
Production ..................................... 390
12.6.1.1 Lifetime .............................. 390
12.6.1.2 Classification of Ores According to
Their Uranium Content ................. 394
12.6.1.3 Unconventional Uranium Reserves ....... 395
12.6.1.4 Thorium Reserves ...................... 397
12.6.2 The Present and Future Price of Uranium-
Geographical Distribution of the Uranium
Reserves ....................................... 398
Appendix A Solar Tower Power Plants: Comparison of Kolb
(1996), Kalb / Vogel, SunLab, S & L ............... 403
Appendix В Inflation, Purchasing Power Parities .............. 439
Appendix С Energy Statistics ................................. 443
Appendix D Comments on the Earlier Study (Kalb and Vogel
1986a) ............................................ 455
References .................................................... 467
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