 | Dragoon K. Valuing wind generation on integrated power systems. - Kidlington, Oxford; Burlington: William Andrew, 2010. - x, 229 p.: ill., maps. - Incl. bibl. ref. - Ind.: p.227-229. - ISBN 978-0-8155-2047-4
|
Preface ........................................................ ix
Acknowledgements ................................................ x
CHAPTER 1 Introduction ......................................... 1
CHAPTER 2 Overview of system impacts of wind generation
on роwer systems ..................................... 5
2.1 Primary economic effects of wind роwer ..................... 6
2.2 Role of wind forecasts in wind роwer economics ............. 7
2.3 Wind as an energy resource ................................. 9
2.4 Other potentially important effects ....................... 11
2.5 Properties of wind output in aggregate .................... 13
2.5.1 Effects of high-pressure systems and weather
fronts ............................................. 16
2.5.2 Weather fronts and wind ramps ...................... 18
2.5.3 Wind generation data ............................... 19
2.6 Summary ................................................... 19
CHAPTER 3 General approaches to valuing wind on роwer
systems ............................................. 21
3.1 Wind valuation components ................................. 23
3.1.1 Direct wind generation cost ........................ 24
3.1.2 Gross value of generated energy .................... 26
3.1.3 Value of renewable energy credits and emissions
reductions ......................................... 27
3.1.4 Cost of holding additional reserves due to wind
variability and uncertainty ........................ 29
3.1.5 Effects on reserve generation operating costs ...... 32
3.1.6 Balance of system and market trading costs ......... 33
3.2 Summary ................................................... 34
CHAPTER 4 Developing useful wind generation data .............. 37
4.1 Sensitivity of statistics to scaling ...................... 38
4.1.1 Scaling to nearby wind projects .................... 4l
4.2 Converting wind speed to wind output ...................... 42
4.2.1 Adjusting wind speed measurements to hub height .... 43
4.2.2 Multi-turbine роwer curve equivalent ............... 44
4.2.3 Block-averaged wind speeds ......................... 46
4.3 Using weather model data .................................. 47
4.4 Summary ................................................... 48
CHAPTER 5 Representing wind in economic dispatch models ....... 51
5.1 Ideal representation of wind generators in dispatch
models .................................................... 52
5.2 Fixed time series in formard- and backward-looking
analyses .................................................. 53
5.3 Representing wind as load reduction or fixed generation
levels .................................................... 55
5.4 Representing wind as an equivalent thermal generation
station ................................................... 57
5.5 Summary ................................................... 61
CHAPTER 6 Pоwer system incremental reserve requirements ....... 63
6.1 Principles of reserve requirement analysis ................ 63
6.1.1 Incremental reserves to ensure reliability ......... 64
6.1.2 Distinct importance of variability and
uncertainty ........................................ 65
6.1.3 Reserve requirements depend on both load and wind
characteristics .................................... 66
6.2 Reserve nomenclature ...................................... 70
6.2.1 Planning reserves .................................. 71
6.2.2 Operating reserves ................................. 71
6.3 Determining non-contingency operating reserve
requirements .............................................. 73
6.3.1 Segmenting reserve requirements by type ............ 77
6.3.2 Conditional reserve requirements ................... 83
6.4 Summary ................................................... 84
CHAPTER 7 Wind роwer forecasting .............................. 87
7.1 Types and uses of wind forecasts .......................... 87
7.2 Climate and weather ....................................... 89
7.3 Forecasting techniques .................................... 90
7.4 Forecast error measures ................................... 92
7.5 Forecast accuracy ......................................... 95
7.6 Developing synthetic forecasts ............................ 97
7.7 Summary ................................................... 98
CHAPTER 8 Wind energy valuation studies ...................... 101
8.1 System responses to wind generation ...................... 103
8.2 Study design ............................................. 103
8.3 Model modifications for wind ............................. 105
8.3.1 Modeling variability .............................. 106
8.3.2 Modeling forecast uncertainty ..................... 107
8.4 Example study results .................................... 108
8.5 Portfolio risk and wind generation ....................... 109
8.6 Costs and value not captured by CEDMs .................... 111
8.7 Study validation ......................................... 112
6.7.1 Input validation .................................. 112
8.7.2 Algorithm validation procedures ................... 112
8.7.3 Validating results ................................ 113
8.8 Over-specification of wind costs ......................... 114
8.9 Summary .................................................. 115
CHAPTER 9 Wind integration costs ............................. 117
9.1 Wind integration cost study design ....................... 118
9.1.1 Design for CEDM-based studies ..................... 118
9.1.2 Non-CEDM study design ............................. 121
9.2 Simplified non-CEDM wind integration cost example ........ 122
9.2.1 Calculating increased reserve requirement ......... 123
9.2.2 Incremental fixed costs ........................... 123
9.2.3 Incremental fuel costs ............................ 124
9.2.4 Market transaction costs .......................... 127
9.2.5 Summary of costs .................................. 130
9.3 Cost allocation .......................................... 131
9.4 Incremental reserve requirement behavior ................. 132
9.4.1 Importance of standard deviation .................. 132
9.4.2 Summing distributions ............................. 133
9.4.3 Effect of project size: Examples .................. 135
9.4.4 Effect of correlation: Examples ................... 136
9.4.5 Small increment approximation ..................... 136
9.4.6 Dependence on order ............................... 137
9.4.7 Real data and the inconstancy of the
z-statistic ....................................... 138
9.4.8 Conclusion ........................................ 138
9.5 Summary .................................................. 138
CHAPTER 10 Wind pooler's contribution to meeting peak
demand ............................................. 141
10.1 Capacity value and effective load-carrying capability .... l42
10.2 Computing effective load-carrying capability ............. 144
10.3 Wind capacity value characteristics ...................... 149
10.4 Case studies ............................................. 150
10.4.1 State of New York ................................. 150
10.4.2 State of Minnesota ................................ 151
10.4.3 German study ...................................... 152
10.4.4 Irish study ....................................... 152
10.5 Summary .................................................. 153
CHAPTER 11 Effects of markets on wind integration costs ....... 155
11.1 Market size and access ................................... 157
11.2 Scheduling rules and imbalance settlement ................ 158
11.3 Ancillary service requirements and charges ............... 159
11.4 Participation in redispatch .............................. 160
11.5 Wind forecasting services ................................ 162
11.6 Capacity valuation ....................................... 162
11.7 Market incentives ........................................ 163
11.7.1 Federal incentives ................................ 163
11.7.2 Non-federal incentives ............................ 166
11.8 Transmission construction cost recovery and efficient
use of capability ........................................ 166
11.8.1 Efficient use ..................................... 166
11.8.2 Transmission construction cost recovery ........... 167
11.9 Summary .................................................. 168
CHAPTER 12 Enhancing wind energy value ........................ 171
12.1 Reducing reserve generation requirements ................. 172
12.1.1 Improved wind forecasting ......................... 173
12.1.2 Shorter scheduling lead times ..................... 174
12.1.3 More frequent market transactions ................. 175
12.2 Efficient provision of balancing services ................ 175
12.2.1 Wider sharing of balancing needs .................. 175
12.2.2 Incorporating a broader range of balancing
generators ........................................ 176
12.3 Active management of wind and demand ..................... 179
12.4 Dedicated storage technologies ........................... 180
12.5 Summary .................................................. 181
CHAPTER 13 Review of selected wind integration studies ........ 183
13.1 Sampling of studies ...................................... 185
13.1.1 2006 Minnesota wind integration study ............. 185
13.1.2 2005 NYSERDA wind study ........................... 187
13.1.3 California Energy Commission 2007 IAP Final
Report ............................................ 189
13.1.4 Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study
(EWITS) ........................................... 191
13.1.5 Western Wind and Solar Integration Study
(WWSIS) ........................................... 194
13.1.6 All Island Study (Ireland) ........................ 198
13.2 Summary .................................................. 201
CHAPTER 14 Considerations for high penetration wind systems ... 203
14.1 Market organization ...................................... 206
14.2 Energy storage ........................................... 207
14.3 Facility siting .......................................... 210
14.4 Wind forecasting ......................................... 211
14.5 Controlling wind generation .............................. 212
14.6 Summary .................................................. 213
APPENDIX A Wind forecasting vendors ........................... 215
Glossary ...................................................... 217
Index ......................................................... 227
|
|
