Acknowledgments ................................................ xv
MEMORANDUM TO A CONCERNED FINANCE MINISTER .................... xix
Overview
1 Fluctuating Deaths, Rising Damages - the Numbers ............ 23
3.3 million deaths in the 40 years to 2010 .................. 26
Disasters can strike anywhere ............................... 27
Damages are rising .......................................... 27
More so in rich countries, less in poor ..................... 27
Small island economies are hit hard ......................... 29
Deaths expand Africa—damages shrink it ...................... 31
Multiple hazards, clustering in different ways .............. 32
Spotlight 1 on Bangladesh: The antecedents of lives saved ...... 34
2 Measuring Disasters' Many Effects ........................... 41
Individuals over the edge ................................... 43
Conflicts: Cause or consequence? ............................ 48
Welfare falls, but what are the effects on output? And for
how long? ................................................... 52
Aggregate and sectoral effects on economic output and
growth in the long term ..................................... 54
Measuring the damage: Twice over and half under? ............ 57
Spotlight 2 on Turkey: Where civilizations and tectonic
plates meet ................................................. 64
3 Prevention by Individuals ................................... 69
Prevention, insurance, and coping: A simple framework ....... 70
Prevention: Do individuals do enough? ....................... 72
Prices reflect hazard risks when land and real estate
markets work ................................................ 76
Improving individuals' decisions: What can governments
do? ......................................................... 84
Spotlight 3 on Haiti: Preventing Haiti's horrors ............... 99
4 Prevention through Governments ............................. 105
How much do governments spend? ............................. 106
Who really decides government spending? .................... 110
How to improve collective prevention measures .............. 115
Spotlight 4 on Ethiopia: Deaths from droughts or Derg? ........ 134
5 Insurance and Coping ....................................... 141
Insurance: Useful if the premium is priced right ........... 143
Should governments borrow, set aside funds, or buy
insurance? ................................................. 148
Quick and direct help for families ......................... 154
Spotlight 5 on the 2004 Tsunami: Warnings: The most
effective prevention ....................................... 164
6 Coming Game-Changers? Burgeoning Cities, Climate Change,
and Climate-Induced Catastrophes ........................... 169
Cities: Rising exposure .................................... 170
Climate change: Changing hazards, changing damages ......... 174
Climate-related catastrophes: Deep-future disasters with
a global footprint ......................................... 181
Connecting the three Cs: Cities, climate, catastrophes ..... 186
MEMORANDUM TO A CONCERNED CITIZEN ............................. 191
Notes and References .......................................... 199
Index ......................................................... 239
Boxes
1.1 The framework for the report ........................... 24
1.2 Understanding the terms in the report .................. 25
1.3 Global natural hazard databases: Varied purposes,
varying details ........................................ 26
2.1 Previous studies find a medley of effects of output
and growth ............................................. 53
2.2 Revenues and expenditures: Disasters' fiscal
consequences ........................................... 61
3.1 Evaluating the costs and benefits of structural
mitigation measures .................................... 73
3.2 Assessing risk in Central America ...................... 86
3.3 A century's struggle for sound buildings in Italy ...... 87
3.4 Building codes ВС and their later kin .................. 91
4.1 India and anti-drought funds .......................... 114
4.2 Valuing life: Worthless, priceless, or useless
statistic? ............................................ 117
4.3 WMO's 2006-07 country-level assessment ................ 123
4.4 Communications to the community ....................... 125
4.5 The United States tries to identify critical
infrastructure ........................................ 126
4.6 Costs and benefits of mangroves or shrimp ponds on
the Thai coast ........................................ 131
5.1 Catastrophe risk in insurance and financial markets ... 147
5.2 The World Bank's catastrophe risk deferred drawdown
option (CAT DDO) ...................................... 150
5.3 Mobilizing Haiti's diaspora ........................... 157
6.1 Estimating additional damages from climate change-
induced tropical cyclones ............................. 176
6.2 Within country effects: The case of the United
States ................................................ 179
6.3 Estimating additional damages from climate change-
induced extreme events (other than tropical
cyclones) ............................................. 180
6.4 Geoengineering's potential and pitfalls ............... 185
Figures
1 Number of countries that archive data for specific
hazards ................................................. 4
2 Property prices for comparable properties are higher
in locations farther from earthquake risk in Bogota ..... 5
3 Underspending on maintenance implies an enormous
infrastructure rehabilitation backlog in Sub-Saharan
Africa .................................................. 7
4 Three modes of operation of the SMART Tunnel ............ 7
5 The visible border between Haiti and the Dominican
Republic ................................................ 9
6 Disasters receive about a fifth of total humanitarian
assistance ............................................. 10
7 Private preventive measures pay ........................ 14
8 Post-disaster spending fluctuates more than pre-
disaster spending ...................................... 17
9 Climate change shortens the return period of large
storms ................................................. 21
1.1 Deaths fluctuate—the number of people affected is on
the rise ............................................... 27
1.2 Disasters affect all regions ........................... 28
1.3 Disasters almost everywhere (1970-2010) ................ 28
1.4 Droughts deadliest in Africa, earthquakes elsewhere .... 29
1.5 Damage on the rise in the last two decades (global
damage from hazards, 1970-2010) ........................ 29
1.6 More damage in rich countries, mostly from
earthquakes and storms ................................. 30
1.7 Many small island developing states are among the
25 countries with damages above 1 percent of GDP ....... 30
2.1 Undernourished children become shorter adults .......... 45
2.2 Post-traumatic stress reaction (PTSR) scores fall
over time in all tsunami-affected areas ................ 47
2.3 A possible post-disaster GDP path ...................... 52
3.1 Private preventive measures pay ........................ 74
3.2 Property prices for comparable properties are higher
in locations farther from earthquake risk in Bogota .... 78
3.3 Corruption perception by industry ...................... 96
3.4 Debris embedded in a concrete support beam ............. 97
3.5 "Honeycombing" showing shoddy construction ............. 97
4.1 Post-disaster spending fluctuates more than pre-
disaster spending ..................................... 107
4.2 Underspending on maintenance implies an enormous
infrastructure rehabilitation backlog in Sub-Saharan
Africa ................................................ 108
4.3 Per capita spending is greater for physical capital ... 109
4.4 Vietnam's recurrent spending is a low and declining
share of total transport expenditure .................. 110
4.5 Presidential disaster declarations: Peaks often
coincide with presidential election years ............. 112
4.6 Increasing the accuracy of weather forecasts .......... 119
4.7 Internationally coordinated network of WMO and
189 national meteorological and hydrological
services .............................................. 120
4.8 Coordinating data collection is complex: A section
of the Global Telecommunication System (for Europe)
to share data and warnings ............................ 122
4.9 Three modes of operation of the SMART Tunnel .......... 127
5.1 Managing and transferring financial risks to the
market ................................................ 149
5.2 OECD remittance recipients in Ghana have sturdier
housing and better communication amenities ............ 156
5.3 International remittance recipients in Ethiopia are
less likely to depend on food aid or sell productive
assets during food shortages .......................... 156
5.4 Timeline of key events in the Horn of Africa drought
in 2005-06 ............................................ 160
5.5 Disasters receive about a fifth of total
humanitarian assistance ............................... 163
6.1 Current (2008) and projected (2100) damages from
extreme events without climate change ................. 175
6.2 Climate change shortens the return period of large
storms ................................................ 178
6.3 Greater Jakarta area orographic map with rainfall
regime ................................................ 188
6.4 Fifteen years of urbanization in Jakarta, before and
after ................................................. 188
Maps
1 Deaths shrink Asia and the Americas—but expand
Africa ................................................. 11
2 Damages shrink Africa but expand middle-income
countries .............................................. 12
3 Exposure to cyclones and earthquakes in lprge cities
may rise from 680 million people in 2000 to 1.5
billion people by 2050 ................................. 20
1.1 Deaths shrink Asia and the Americas—but expand
Africa ................................................. 31
1.2 Damages shrink Africa but expand middle-income
countries .............................................. 31
1.3 Where hazards have struck .............................. 33
3.1 An earthquake risk index for Bogota .................... 82
3.2 Poor people live closer to hazard-prone areas in
Bogota ................................................. 83
4.1 Red dots indicate where few, if any, synoptic weather
observations are being received ....................... 121
5.1 The Caribbean region—in harm's way .................... 151
6.1 Cities projected to have more than 100,000 people by
the year 2050 ......................................... 171
6.2 Exposure to cyclones and earthquakes in large cities
may rise from 680 million people in 2000 to 1.5
billion people by 2050 ................................ 172
Tables
2.1 Stunted children have lower cognitive scores ........... 46
2.2 Civil war, rainfall, and the rule of law ............... 51
2.3 Growth effect of a "typical" (median) disaster ......... 55
2.4 Growth effect of a "typical" (median) severe
disaster ............................................... 56
3.1 Individuals and governments prevent, insure, and cope
with disasters ......................................... 71
4.1 Natural hazards and protection ........................ 129
5.1 Post-disaster safety nets are common .................. 161
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