List of Figures .............................................. V
List of Tables .............................................. XI
List of Abbreviations ...................................... XIV
Preface .................................................... XIX
1 Executive Summary ............................................ 1
1.1 Objectives of this Study ................................ 1
1.2 Abstract of Methodology ................................. 1
1.3 Summary of Results ...................................... 4
1.3.1 Overview on Application Studies .................. 4
1.3.2 Emissions from Air Traffic 2000-2010 ............. 5
1.3.3 Forecast of Emissions from Air Traffic 2011-
2030 ............................................. 6
2 Ecological and Technological Background ...................... 9
2.1 Development of Air Traffic .............................. 9
2.2 Climate Impact of Aviation Emissions ................... 11
2.3 Technology Measures to Limit Aviation Emissions ........ 15
2.3.1 Improving Aircraft Fuel Efficiency .............. 15
2.3.2 Reducing Engine NOx Emissions ................... 18
2.3.3 Optimizing Air Traffic Management and Aircraft
Operations ...................................... 21
2.3.4 Alternative Fuels ............................... 22
2.4 Approach and Focus of this Study ....................... 23
3 Methodology for Aviation Emissions Calculation .............. 25
3.1 Model Overview ......................................... 25
3.2 VarMission - Flight Mission and Emissions Module ....... 26
3.2.1 Overview ........................................ 26
3.2.2 The BADA Aircraft Performance Model ............. 27
3.2.3 Flight Mission Simulation in VarMission ......... 30
3.2.4 Emission Calculation in VarMission .............. 34
3.2.4.1 Overview on Calculation Methods ......... 34
3.2.4.2 Emissions of CO2 and Н2О ................ 34
3.2.4.3 Emissions of NOx, CO and HC ............. 35
3.2.4.4 Emissions of Soot/Black Carbon .......... 38
3.2.5 VarMission Validation ............................ 39
3.2.5.1 Mission Fuel Burn Validation ............ 39
3.2.5.2 Validation of Emissions Calculations .... 42
3.2.6 "Emission Profiles" - Look-up Tables of
Aircraft Emissions ............................... 44
3.3 Air Traffic Emissions Module ........................... 46
3.3.1 Overview ........................................ 46
3.3.2 OAG Schedules and Flight Movements .............. 47
3.3.3 Load Factors and Payload ........................ 48
3.3.4 ATM Efficiency .................................. 51
3.3.5 Fuel Burn and Emissions of Global Air Traffic ... 53
3.3.5.1 Procedure for Calculating Fuel Burn
and Emissions .......................... 53
3.3.5.2 Simplifications and Uncertainties ...... 57
3.3.6 Contents of the Flight Movements and Emissions
Database ........................................ 59
3.3.7 Link to the FATE Global Inventory Software ...... 60
3.4 Air Traffic Emissions Forecast Module .................. 62
3.4.1 Overview ........................................ 62
3.4.2 Simplifying Assumptions for the Forecast ........ 63
3.4.3 Traffic Growth Model ............................ 66
3.4.4 Fleet Rollover Model ............................ 68
3.4.4.1 Approach and Assumptions ............... 68
3.4.4.2 Aircraft Retirements ................... 71
3.4.4.3 Aircraft Deliveries and Assignment to
Flight Movements ....................... 75
3.4.4.4 Aircraft Production Periods ............ 81
3.4.5 Models of Future Aircraft-Engine Combinations ... 82
3.4.5.1 Approach and Overview .................. 82
3.4.5.2 Widebody Aircraft of the Near Future ... 83
3.4.5.3 Narrowbody Aircraft of the Near
Future ................................. 87
3.4.5.4 A Generic Narrowbody Aircraft Family
of the 2020s ........................... 90
3.4.5.5 Aircraft Representation for Fuel Burn
and Emissions Calculation .............. 94
3.4.6 Other Assumptions ............................... 95
3.4.6.1 Fuel Efficiency Improvement by Serial
Modification ........................... 95
3.4.6.2 Reduction of NOx Emissions by
Improved Engine Combustors ............. 96
3.4.6.3 Load Factor Development ................ 99
3.4.6.4 Improvement of ATM Efficiency ......... 100
4 Traffic Emissions 2000-2030 ................................ 101
4.1 Overview on Application Studies ....................... 101
4.2 Traffic Emissions 2000-2010 ........................... 102
4.2.1 Results Summary ................................ 102
4.2.2 Transport Performance .......................... 103
4.2.3 Fuel Consumption ............................... 104
4.2.4 NOx Emissions .................................. 106
4.2.5 CO and HC Emissions ............................ 108
4.2.6 Emissions of Soot / Black Carbon ............... 110
4.3 Forecast of Air Traffic Emissions 2011-2030 ........... 112
4.3.1 Results Summary ................................ 112
4.3.2 Transport Performance .......................... 113
4.3.3 Fleet Composition .............................. 115
4.3.4 Fuel Consumption ............................... 119
4.3.5 NOx Emissions .................................. 122
4.4 Selected Sensitivities and Case Studies ............... 125
4.4.1 Influence of Traffic Growth .................... 125
4.4.2 Influence of Assumptions about Future Engine
Combustors ..................................... 128
4.4.3 Delayed Introduction of New Aircraft ........... 131
4.4.4 New Single-Aisle Aircraft instead of Re-
Engined A320 and 737 ........................... 135
5 Perspectives ............................................... 138
5.1 Outlook on Future Air Traffic ......................... 138
5.2 Past and Future Model Application ..................... 142
5.3 Prospective Model Improvements ........................ 143
References ................................................. 145
Appendices ................................................. 155
Appendix A Aircraft Speeds and Accelerations .............. 156
Appendix В Engine Thrust Levels ........................... 158
Appendix С Format of VarMission and FATE Emission
Profiles ....................................... 160
Appendix D Typical Cruise Flight Levels ................... 162
Appendix Е Specific Soot Particle Number vs. Altitude ..... 164
Appendix F OAG Aircraft and VarMission Models ............. 165
Appendix G En-Route Extension ............................. 171
Appendix H ATM Efficiency in Air Traffic Emissions
Module ......................................... 174
Appendix I Database Structure of Air Traffic Emissions
Module ......................................... 177
Appendix J Growth Rates for Passenger and Cargo Air
Traffic ........................................ 180
Appendix К Standardization of Aircraft Capacities ......... 185
Appendix L Development of Retirement Curves ............... 189
Appendix M Fleet Forecast Details ......................... 192
Appendix N Aircraft Delivery Periods, Capacities and
Lifetime Assumptions ........................... 194
Appendix О Visualization of Aircraft Delivery Periods ..... 204
Appendix P Aircraft Replacement Schemes ................... 208
Appendix Q Aircraft and Engine Models of the Near
Future ......................................... 213
Appendix R Design Approach for a Future Narrowbody
Aircraft Family ................................ 217
Appendix S Assumptions for Cargo Aircraft ................. 219
Appendix T Assumed Stringency of NOx Emission
Standards ...................................... 221
Appendix U Tabulated Results for Baseline Scenario ........ 222
Appendix V Visualization of Air Traffic Emissions ......... 231
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