Abdallah M.A.H. Developing a multi-purpose reservoir operating model with uncertain conditions: a case of Eastern Nile Reservoirs - Sudan = Entwicklung eines multifunktionalen Talsperren - bewirtschaftungsmodells bei unsicheren Rahmen - bedigungen: Fallstudie für die Talsperren des ostlichen Nilbeckens im Sudan. - Dresden: Institut für Wasserbau und Technische Hydromechanik, 2015. - xv, 192 p.: ill. - (Dresdner Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen / Technische Universität (Dresden). Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen; H.54). - Загл. серии на обл.: Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen. - Res. also Germ. - Bibliogr.: p.137-140. - ISBN 978-3-86780-431-8; ISSN 0949-5061  Место хранения:   02 | Отделение ГПНТБ СО РАН | Новосибирск

Оглавление / Contents

Abstract ........................................................ i Kurzfassung ................................................... iii Acknowledgments ................................................ vi List of Figures ................................................ xi List of Tables ............................................... xiii List of Abbreviation .......................................... xiv Notations ..................................................... xiv Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................... 1 1.1 General .................................................... 2 1.2 Importance of the Subject .................................. 3 1.3 Hypotheses and Objectives .................................. 5 1.4 Method of Approach ......................................... ° 1.5 The Case Study ............................................. 6 1.6 Contribution ............................................... ' 1.7 Outline of the Thesis ...................................... 8 Chapter 2 ....................................................... 9 Reservoirs Systems Modeling ..................................... 9 2.1 General ................................................... 10 2.2 Reservoirs' Systems ....................................... 11 2.3 Reservoir s Systems' Studies .............................. 12 2.4 Uncertainty of Reservoirs' Systems ........................ 13 2.5 Reservoirs Systems Simulation ............................. 14 2.6 Reservoirs Systems Optimization ........................... 15 2.6.1 Linear Programming Models .......................... 15 2.6.2 Dynamic Programming Models ......................... 16 2.6.3 Non-linear Programming Models ...................... 16 2.6.4 Computational Intelligence ......................... 17 2.7 Simulation-Optimization Modeling in Reservoirs Systems .... 18 2.8 Summary ................................................... 19 Chapter 3 Development of Reservoirs' Simulation-Uncertainty- Parameterization-Optimization (RSUPO) Model .................... 20 3.1 Introduction .............................................. 21 3.2 Basics of Reservoir Operation ............................. 21 3.2.1 Rule Curves ......................................... 23 3.3 Stochastic Optimization (SO) .............................. 23 3.4 Parameterization-Simulation-Optimization .................. 25 3.5 Swarm Intelligence ........................................ 26 3.5.1 Particle Swarm Intelligence ......................... 26 3.5.1.1 Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm ........... 27 3.6 Development of RSUPO Reservoir Operation Model ............ 27 3.6.1 Simulation of Reservoir System ..................... 29 3.6.2 Fuzzy Rule Based Model ............................. 30 3.6.3 Parameterization of a Reservoir System ............. 30 3.7 Summary ................................................... 34 Chapter 4 ...................................................... 35 Case Study ..................................................... 35 4.1 Study Area and System Description ......................... 36 4.1.1 Sennar Reservoir ................................... 37 4.1.2 Roseires Reservoir ................................. 38 4.1.3 Girba Reservoir .................................... 38 4.2 Reservoirs Sedimentation .................................. 39 4.3 Reservoirs Evaporation .................................... 40 4.4 Irrigation Demands ........................................ 42 4.5 Reservoirs Operating Procedures ........................... 43 4.6 Summary ................................................... 46 Chapters 5 ..................................................... 47 Uncertainty Modeling of Reservoir Operation .................... 47 5.1 Introduction .............................................. 48 5.2 Fuzzy Set Theory .......................................... 51 5.2.1 Fuzzy Set Operation ................................. 51 5.2.2 Reservoir Operation with Fuzzy Sets ................. 52 5.3 Model Formulation ......................................... 53 5.4 Application to Case Study ................................. 55 5.4.1 Model Variables .................................... 55 5.4.2 Membership Function ................................ 58 5.4.3 Fuzzy Rules (Fuzzy Inference Structure) ............ 60 5.5 Analysis and Results ...................................... 61 5.5.1 Storage-Release Comparison ......................... 64 5.5.2 Hydropower Generation .............................. 64 5.5.3 Model Reliability .................................. 70 5.6 Summary ................................................... 7« Chapter 6 ...................................................... 79 Parameterization of Reservoir Operation Rules .................. 79 6.1 Introduction .............................................. 80 6.2 General Formulation ....................................... 80 6.3 Parameterization of Reservoir System ...................... 81 6.4 Three-Dimensional Surface Modeling ........................ 83 6.4.1 Application to case study ........................... 84 6.5 PSO-HDG Model ............................................. 85 6.5.1 Reservoirs Surface Fitting ......................... 89 6.5.2 Reservoirs Residuals ............................... 92 6.6 PSO-Zone Model ............................................ 95 6.7 Summary .................................................. 106 Chapter 7 ..................................................... 107 Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Reservoir Operation ....... 107 7.1 Introduction ............................................. 108 7.2 Particle Swarm Optimization Model ........................ 109 7.2.1 Parameters Setting ................................ 109 7.2.2 Swarm Size ........................................ 110 7.2.3 Test Functions .................................... 110 7.2.4 Parameter Sensitivity Analysis .................... 112 7.3 Reservoir Optimization model ............................. 114 7.3.1 PSO-HDG Reservoir Optimization Model ............... 114 7.4 Analysis and Results ..................................... 116 7.4.1 Reservoirs Storage Model's Results ................ 117 7.4.2 Reservoirs Release Model's Results ................ 120 7.4.3 Hydropower generation ............................. 121 7.4.4 Models Performance Measures ....................... 126 7.5 Summary .................................................. 132 Chapter 8 ..................................................... 133 Summary and Conclusions ....................................... 133 8.1 Thesis Summary ........................................... 134 8.2 Major Findings ........................................... 135 8.3 Recommendations for Future Researches .................... 135 References .................................................... 137 APPENDICES .................................................... 141 Appendix related to chapter Two and Three ..................... 141 Appendix Related to Chapter Four and Five ..................... 154 Appendix Related to Chapter Five .............................. 167 Appendix Related to Chapter Seven ............................. 192