Acknowledgements ................................................ 4
Executive Summary ............................................... 5
Kurzzusammenfassung ............................................. 8
Preliminary Remarks ............................................ 11
1 Introduction ................................................. 14
2 Research Domain .............................................. 15
2.1 The Airport System ....................................... 15
2.2 Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) ...................... 17
2.2.1 Example of Software CDM -
Arrival Management Systems ......................... 19
2.2.2 Example of Software CDM -
Departure Management Systems ....................... 20
2.2.3 Example of Institutionalized CDM -
The Hub Control Center in Frankfurt ................ 22
3 Risk Analysis as a Detection of Critical System States ....... 25
3.1 What is Risk? ............................................ 25
3.1.1 An Introduction to Risk and Risk Management ........ 25
3.1.2 Crises as Materialized Risk ........................ 26
3.2 Risk as a Multi-Disciplinary Category .................... 27
3.2.1 Risk and Risk Management in Business Economics ..... 27
3.2.2 Risk and Risk Management in Sociology .............. 30
3.2.3 Risk and Risk Management in Psychology ............. 32
3.2.4 Risk and Risk Management in Political Science ...... 35
3.3 Risk Assessment as Part of Integrated Airport
Management ............................................... 36
3.4 Risk Assessment and Collaborative Decision Making at
Airports ................................................. 39
4 Markov Chains and Stochastic Transition Matrices in Airport
System Analyses .............................................. 41
4.1 Probability and Causation ................................ 41
4.2 An Introduction to Markov Chains and Stochastic
Transition Matrices ...................................... 44
4.3 Building Transition Matrices as Airport System
Matrices ................................................. 46
4.4 The Airport System Matrix as a System Fingerprint ........ 50
4.5 System Matrices used for Static System Analyses .......... 53
4.5.1 System State Sensitivity and Effect Spread ......... 55
4.5.2 Eigenvectors and System Matrices ................... 56
4.5.3 Scalar Function Gradients and System Matrices ...... 57
4.5.4 Vector Function Divergence and System Matrices ..... 59
4.6 Transition Matrices used for Dynamic System Analyses ..... 61
4.6.1 Probabilistic Forecasting .......................... 61
4.6.2 Probabilistic Diagnosis ............................ 63
4.6.3 What-lf Probing .................................... 67
4.6.4 The Concept of Permeability ........................ 70
5 Parametric Airport System States ............................. 73
5.1 Airport System State Parameterization on the Basis of
a Target System .......................................... 73
5.2 The Concept of an Airport Target System .................. 75
5.3 Stakeholders, System Elements and System Functions ....... 76
5.3.1 Resources and Functions of Air Traffic Control ..... 77
5.3.2 Resources and Functions of Airlines ................ 80
5.3.3 Resources and Functions of Ground Handling
Companies .......................................... 81
5.3.4 Functional Elements and Functions of Airport
Operators .......................................... 81
5.3.5 Development of a Comprehensive Airport Target
System ............................................. 82
5.4 Deriving System State Parameters from Generic Airport
Functions & Resources .................................... 85
5.4.1 The Upper Functional Layer of an Airport ........... 87
5.4.2 The Runway System .................................. 89
5.4.3 The Turnaround System .............................. 94
5.4.4 The Taxiway System ................................. 98
5.4.5 The Apron System .................................. 101
5.4.6 The Gate System ................................... 103
5.4.7 The ATC system .................................... 105
5.4.8 The Security System ............................... 110
5.4.9 Cargo Operations .................................. 113
5.5 Development of System State Vectors ..................... 116
6 Applying Markov Chains to Airport Systems ................... 120
6.1 A Model Case - Introduction ............................. 120
6.2 Development of a Generic Airport for Model Testing ...... 120
6.2.1 Building Airport Scenarios ........................ 122
6.2.2 Translating Airport Scenarios into State Vector
Sequences ......................................... 123
6.2.3 Deriving Transition Matrices from Observed Model
Scenarios ......................................... 125
6.3 Static System Analysis of the Model Airport ............. 127
6.3.1 System State Coupling, Sensitivity and Effect
Spread ............................................ 128
6.3.2 Eigenvectors ...................................... 132
6.3.3 Scalar Function Gradients ......................... 135
6.3.4 Vector Function Divergence ........................ 138
6.4 Dynamic System Analysis of the Model Airport ............ 138
6.4.1 Probabilistic Forecasting ......................... 138
6.4.2 Probabilistic Diagnosis ........................... 142
6.4.3 What-lf Probing ................................... 147
6.4.4 Permeability ...................................... 153
6.5 A Real-World Micro-System - Introduction ................ 154
6.6 Using Data from the Zeus System at Zьrich Airport ....... 155
6.7 Static Analysis of the Real-World Micro-System .......... 158
6.7.1 System State Coupling, Sensitivity and Effect
Spread ............................................ 160
6.8 Dynamic Analysis of the Real-World Micro-System ......... 164
6.8.1 Probabilistic Forecasting ......................... 165
6.8.2 Probabilistic Diagnosis ........................... 174
6.8.3 What-If Probing ................................... 178
6.8.4 Permeability ...................................... 182
7 Conclusion and Outlook ...................................... 183
7.1 Conclusive Discussion ................................... 183
7.2 Outlook on Future Research .............................. 187
Notation ...................................................... 190
References .................................................... 193
Abbreviations ................................................. 202
Illustration Index ............................................ 205
Appendix ...................................................... 207
Airport Scenario 1 - weather ................................ 207
Airport Scenario 2 - technical .............................. 209
Airport Scenario 3 - turnaround operations .................. 212
Airport Scenario 4 - security ............................... 215
Airport Scenario 5 - traffic flow ........................... 218
Airport Scenario 6 - airspace ............................... 222
Airport Scenario 7 - emergency landing ...................... 227
Airport Scenario 8 - fog and SMR failure .................... 231
Airport Scenario 9 - labor strike ........................... 234
Airport Scenario 10 - miscellaneous ......................... 238
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